ECX2953/ECX5953 Economics Essay Sample
Instructions
Academic integrity:
The Moodle Submission will have the integrated Turnitin to check the similarity score (Pease see https://guides.lib.monash.edu/turnitin for more information). Please ensure the similarity score is lower than 20%; otherwise, essay will be returned for rewriting and late submission penalty will apply (see below).
• To reduce the similarity,
o First and foremost, complete your assignment by yourself and independently.
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1.11 Unless an extension or special consideration has been granted, or otherwise specified in the learning management system, students who submit an assessment task after the due date will receive a late-submission penalty of 10 per cent of the available marks in that task. A further penalty of 10 per cent of the available marks will be applied for each additional day (24-hour period), or part thereof, the assessment task is overdue.
1.12 Tasks submitted more than seven days after the due date will receive a mark of zero for that task.
Details of task
Technology is having profound effects on long-term economic growth. Automation and digital advances are shifting labour demand away from routine low- to middle-level skills to higher-level and more sophisticated analytical, technical, and managerial skills. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping the world and blurring the difference between robots and human beings in terms of thinking capacities. Since its release in November of last year, OpenAI's ChatGPT has been used to write cover letters, create a children's book, and even help students cheat on their essays (read Monash’s academic integrity policies again). However, more than 1,000 technology leaders and researchers, including Elon Musk, have urged artificial intelligence labs to pause development of the most advanced systems, warning in an open letter that A.I. tools present “profound risks to society and humanity.” This assignment is to ask our economics students to research into the impacts of technological advances on long term economic growth, in particular, jobs, skills, and wages. You may start with a class economics paper by Richard Ball on the impact of technology on economic growth to get some economics backgrounds on this topic. The 2016 Economist paper is to address this issue in the context of IT revolution. The McKinsey report updates the context by examining the impacts of AI and machine learning. The more recent article by the Noble-prize winner Paul Krugman discussed the impacts of
ChatGPT on skilled jobs
Task No 1
Write an essay to address the following issues/questions (this is not a comprehensive list and please feel free to add any issue you want to investigate):
• Within the macroeconomic context, explain the mechanism in which technological advances impact the long-term economic growth.
• What is the “machinery question”? Whether the current advances in AI (such as ChatGPT) differ from the traditional “machinery question”?
• Do you agree that AI has the potential to replace labour forces in some professions? Use one or two real world examples to support your arguments.
• Why did Elon Musk, one of the original investors of OpenAI and the CEO of Tesla (which is an AI-intensive manufactory) argue that A.I. tools present “profound risks to society and humanity.”?
• How will your own profession be affected by the advances in AI?
• From your reading, highlight some policy recommendations to alleviate the negative impacts of AI on jobs, skills, and wages.
• Critically evaluate these policy recommendations.
Solution
Task 1
Introduction
The rise of technology has helped many countries improve their economy. However, the increase in the use of AI has also raised the question of security and privacy. Moreover, the rise of AI has impacted people as they are on the brink of losing their jobs. University Assignment Help, The essay will highlight the use of AI in business and, provide in-depth knowledge about the risk that AI poses to human civilisation. This essay will emphasise some policies and recommendations that can be considered for combating the rise of challenges due to AI.
Discussion
Impact of technological advances on long-term economic growth
Technological advances play a pivotal role in shaping long-term economic growth within the macroeconomic context. This mechanism can be understood through a multifaceted lens, encompassing several interconnected aspects. As per the view of (Javaid et al., 2022), firstly, technological advances enhance productivity. Innovations in technology often lead to more efficient production processes, reducing costs and increasing output. The heightened productivity fosters economic growth. This innovation can lead to increased efficiency and competitiveness, driving economic growth. For example, in Australia, the technology sector contributed 167 billion dollars from 2020 to 2021, which is a 79% growth from 2016 to 2017 (Consultancy, 2023). The advent of the internet revolutionized communication and commerce, leading to the growth of digital industries and the availability of countless jobs. Secondly, technology enhances productivity by enabling workers and businesses to do more with less. Automation and digital tools streamline operations, reducing costs and increasing output. The high productivity translates into higher wages and greater economic output, fuelling long-term growth. Technological advances drive structural transformation in the economy. They shift resources from traditional, less productive sectors to high-tech industries, resulting in a more diversified and dynamic economic landscape. This structural change, not only fosters growth but also enhances the economy's resilience to external shocks. Technological advances are the engine of long-term economic growth within the macroeconomic framework. With the help of innovation, productivity gains, and structural transformation, technology drives economies forward, underlining its critical role in shaping the prosperity of nations.
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Figure 1: Tech sector contribution to Australian GDP
(Source: Consultancy, 2023)
Definition of “machinery question” and its difference from traditional “machinery question”.
The machinery question is a concept that has been central to discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) since its inception. As per the view of Lucchi (2023), it refers to the debate surrounding whether machines, particularly computers, can possess true intelligence and understanding or if they are merely executing pre-programmed algorithms without genuine comprehension. This question has been a cornerstone of AI philosophy and ethics, challenging our understanding of consciousness and the potential implications of creating intelligent machines. AI is only people (The Economist, 2016) who do a fast-moving technology that enables machines to perform tasks that previously. Currently, advances in AI exemplified by technologies such as ChatGPT, have rekindled the machinery questions in a contemporary context. While ChatGPT and similar models exhibit impressive language generation and problem-solving abilities, they do not possess true consciousness or understanding. These systems are based on deep learning algorithms, which analyse vast amounts of data to generate responses but lack the self-awareness and subjective experience associated with human intelligence. 93% of Australian companies are planning to ban ChatGPT and other alternatives in the working palace (Asiapacificdefencereporter, 2023). The key difference between current AI technologies and traditional machinery questions is that modern AI focuses on practical applications like natural language, processing, and machine learning rather than attempting to replicate human cognition. While the world has made significant strides in AI, the core philosophical debate about whether machines can truly think and understand, remains largely unchanged.
Describe the potential of AI in labour forces with real-world examples.
Yes, I agree that AI has the potential to replace labour forces in some professions and, there are compelling real-world examples that illustrate this trend. One notable example is the field of manufacturing. Automation and robotics powered by AI have significantly reduced the need for manual labour in factories. Tasks such as welding, assembling, and quality control can now be efficiently handled by machines. This has led to increased productivity and cost savings for manufacturers, but it has also resulted in the displacement of human workers in certain roles. Another example can be found in the financial industry. As per the view of (Sen et al., 2021), AI algorithms and machine learning models are increasingly used for tasks like algorithmic trading and risk assessment. These systems can analyse vast amounts of data in real-time and make split-second decisions. Often outperforming human traders. As a result, traditional trading and investment roles have been impacted and, some human traders have been replaced by AI systems. While AI's ability to replace labour forces can lead to improved efficiency and reduced costs, it also raises important ethical and socio-economic questions. It is crucial to consider the impact on displaced workers and the need for reskilling and upskilling programs to ensure a smooth transition to a more automated workforce. Automation will be a reason to displace many jobs in the coming decade (Mckinsey, 2023).
Views of Elon Musk on AI
Elon Musk, one of the original investors of OpenAI and the CEO of Tesla, has been vocal about the profound risks posed by AI tools to society and humanity. His concerns are grounded in the belief that as AI technology advances, it could potentially surpass human intelligence and decision-making capabilities (The Time, 2023). This super-intelligent AI, if not properly controlled, could have unintended and detrimental consequences.
Musk's concerts revolve around a few key points:
Autonomy and decision-making: Elon Musk worries that highly autonomous AI systems could make decisions that are not aligned with human values and interests. For example, in self-driving cars, an AI system might face a moral dilemma in a split-second situation, having questions about how it should prioritise the safety of occupants, pedestrians, and other drivers (The Time, 2023).
Lack of control: He emphasises the importance of ensuring that humans maintain control over AI systems and prevent them from making decisions that could harm individuals or society as a whole.
Militarization: Musk has expressed concerns about the potential for AI to be weaponized, leading to autonomous weapons systems that could make life-and-death decisions without human intervention.
Economic impact: Musk also acknowledges that AI could lead to widespread job displacement, which could have profound economic and social consequences.
Impact of AI on my profession
Advances in AI will significantly impact the field of my profession of business analytics in several ways. Firstly, AI-powered analytics tools will become more sophisticated, enabling faster and more accurate data processing, trend identification, and predictive modelling. This will enhance the speed and depth of insights, allowing business analysts to make more informed decisions. Secondly, AI will help me to automate routine data analysis tasks, freeing up analysts to focus on higher-level strategic thinking and problem-solving. This shift will require business analysts to acquire new skills in AI and machine learning to effectively harness these technologies. However, it also raises concerns about job displacement as AI can perform certain analytics tasks independently. Henceforth, business analysts will need to adapt by becoming more specialised in areas that require human judgment, creativity, and domain expertise. AI advancements will augment the capabilities of business analysts, making their work more efficient and insightful, but also necessitating ongoing skill development and adaptation to remain relevant in an evolving profession. It has been noticed that machines have not done away with the needs of workers (NY Times, 2023).
Recommendations of Policies
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development provides policy guidance to execute AI through the OECD AI policy observatory. This platform was established in February 2020. There are a few recommendations that can be used to alleviate the negative impacts of AI on jobs, skills, and wages (The State, 2023). It is recommended that comprehensive training programs to upskill and reskill the workforce for jobs that complement AI should be established. Encourage lifelong learning to adapt to evolving technology. It is also suggested that developing and enforcing ethical guidelines for AI to ensure fairness, transparency, and accountability, reducing the potential for discriminatory AI practices. Creating programmes to assist displaced workers in transitioning to new roles or industries. Offering financial support, job placement services, and access to affordable health care during transitions. The Australian government admits that most of the risks that are posed by AI can be covered in existing laws such as privacy law, Australian consumer law, online safety, competition law, and many more.
Critically evaluate these policy recommendations
The OECD AI policy observatory and the recommendations provided by the organization's economic cooperation and development represent a valuable effort in addressing the challenges posed
by AI (The State, 2023). The recommendations for the comprehensive training programme are vital as they acknowledge the need to equip the workforce with skills that complement AI. Developing and enforcing ethical guidelines for AI is essential to prevent discrimination and ensure accountability. Supporting displaced workers is a critical policy response to AI-driven job displacement. The Australian government's approach to relying on existing laws to address AI-related risks may be inadequate. AI introduces unique challenges like algorithmic bias and autonomous decision-making (The Guardian, 2023).
Conclusion
It has been found that several macro factors affect the growth of the economy. GDP is the most important factor in measuring the economic growth of a country. However, there are some other factors such as the production and consumption of the country and the investment in the country. It has also been found in the essay that machine learning refers to the debate surrounding whether machines, particularly computers, can possess true intelligence and understanding or if they are merely executing pre-programmed algorithms without genuine comprehension. The policy and recommendations to alleviate the negative impact of AI could include establishing ethical and legal frameworks, creating programs to assist displaced workers, and many more. AI has become a part of every individual and has an impact on every person.
Task 2
Script
Good morning, I am here to present my views on the impact of AI and technology on the economy of the countries. Along with this, I will also discuss the macroeconomic factors that affect the growth of the country. I will also highlight the rise of AI and its potential threat to human civilisation. It has been discussed in the essay that AI is a potential threat to the job displacement of people. Elon Musk has also shown his concern about the threats posed by AI. Lastly, I have examined and recommended a few policies that could help countries prevent the negative impact of AI.
Reference list
Asiapacificdefencereporter, (2023). Organisations in Australia set to ban ChatGPT and generative AI apps on work devices - APDR https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/organisations-in-australia-set-to-ban-chatgpt-and-generative-ai-apps-on-work-devices/
Consultancy, (2023). 10 charts on Australia's fastest-growing technology sector.https://www.consultancy.com.au/news/3869/10-charts-on-australias-fast-growing-technology-sector
The Economist, (2016). The return of the machinery questions. https://www.economist.com/special-report/2016/06/23/the-return-of-the-machinery-question
Javaid, M., Haleem, A., Singh, R. P., Suman, R., & Gonzalez, E. S. (2022). Understanding the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies in improving environmental sustainability. Sustainable Operations and Computers, 3, 203-217.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.susoc.2022.01.008
Lucchi, N. (2023). ChatGPT: A Case Study on Copyright Challenges for Generative Artificial Intelligence Systems. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 1-23. doi:10.1017/err.2023.59
NY Times, (2023). Does ChatGPT mean robots are coming for the skilled https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/06/opinion/chatgpt-ai-skilled-jobs-automation.html
The State,(2023). Artificial intelligence. https://www.state.gov/artificial-intelligence/#:~:text=The%20principles%20promote%20inclusive%20growth,broader%20digital%20ecosystem%20for%20AI.
The Guardian, (2023). Australia is looking to regulate AI. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jun/03/australia-is-looking-to-regulate-ai-what-might-they-be-used-for-and-what-could-go-wrong
The Time, (2023). inside Elon Musk struggle for the future of AI. https://time.com/6310076/elon-musk-ai-walter-isaacson-biography/#:~:text=Musk%20worried%20that%20these%20chatbots,hostile%20to%20the%20human%20species.
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